瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 89.43%, a 0.40% decrease from the previous period, with the trend shifting from rising to falling. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a decline in production is high. Recently, local agricultural demand continues to progress, while domestic industrial demand weakens. As high - nitrogen fertilizer production nears completion, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate drops. Due to some urea enterprises receiving export orders and being in the legal inspection period, urea supplies are temporarily locked. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of downstream goods being shipped to ports in the short term, the enterprise inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 3,536, a decrease of 5,639. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,357, a decrease of 52 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Anhui is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic is 355 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port is 360 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 20.5 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the enterprise inventory is 103.54 million tons, an increase of 5.48 million tons, a 5.59% increase. The urea enterprise operating rate is 89.83%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points; the daily output is 206,600 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 5,845,080 tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.8507 million tons, a decrease of 0.9876 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,280 tons, a decrease of 1,740 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 103.54 million tons, a 5.59% increase from the previous week. As of June 5, the port sample inventory is 20.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of June 5, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4394 billion tons, a 0.45% decrease from the previous period. There are newly - added coal - based production enterprise device shutdowns, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased slightly. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production [2]