瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a weakening basis [2]. - The overall fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of sufficient supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,680 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 193,023 lots, a decrease of 2,191 lots [2]. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 3,161 lots, a decrease of 1,541 lots; the LME copper inventory is 141,350 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 105,791 tons, an increase of 7,120 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 83,300 tons, an increase of 8,275 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 31,687 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 78,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 78,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 79 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 48.48 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.83 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, an increase of 53.13 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.56 dollars/kiloton, an increase of 0.72 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,660 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,360 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 170 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper materials is 440,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, a decrease of 4.42 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 1,408.16 billion yuan, an increase of 451.95 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan, an increase of 7,825.40 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, a decrease of 30,199.90 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.77%, a decrease of 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 23.25%, a decrease of 0.22% [2]. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.34%, a decrease of 0.0012%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.83, an increase of 0.0285 [2]. Industry News - The "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, and the overall economic outlook remains pessimistic. Some enterprises plan to raise prices in the next three months [2]. - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, far lower than expected [2]. - The National Energy Administration organized the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new power system and required the acceleration of the continuous operation of power spot markets [2]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in May reached 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9% [2].