Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, but there are still large losses. The continued large - scale losses in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their loads. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are actively selling at a loss. This week, the inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production cuts, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 26,276, a decrease of 1,407. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 5,950 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,400 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 64.86 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 62.85 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.56 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 562.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,150 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,350 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.3%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 46.09%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.54%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2] Industry News - As of June 5, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 34,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period (May 28, 2025), a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.58 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.40 percentage points. In May 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market is about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250605
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:09