Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Although the production of industrial silicon has increased slightly, it remains at a relatively low level. The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the fields of organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon sector, the spot price of the organic silicon market has risen, and enterprises have adopted a production - reduction strategy to support prices, which has achieved initial results but has a negative impact on industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, and the overall industry is operating at a reduced load, leading to a decline in the demand for industrial silicon, which is expected to further decrease after the 530 - node. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support from the terminal consumer electronics and automotive industries, but enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices remaining flat, and the industry in a passive de - stocking phase, providing little impetus. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries shows a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts exerts significant delivery pressure on the market. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the market, and maintain a high - selling strategy for medium - and long - term operations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan; the main contract position is 183,965 lots, an increase of 3,637 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 25,752 lots, a decrease of 5,692 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 61,803 lots, a decrease of 887 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 10 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 1,015 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 582,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC is 38,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, a decrease of 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 59.2%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, a decrease of 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of the end of May, the price of dense materials, which had been relatively stable, declined rapidly, with the average transaction price dropping by 10% in a single month to 36 yuan/kg, down 7.7% from the end of last year and the beginning of this year, 11.1% lower than the same period last year, and 44.6% lower than the beginning of last year. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. From the supply side, as the wet season approaches, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places are gradually entering the wet season, showing an advantage in electricity price costs. However, based on the operating rate and production data, there is currently no intention to resume production in the southwest region [2].
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250605
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-05 09:09