瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term raw material supply of natural rubber is tight. Yunnan's output is limited due to weather, and Hainan's new rubber output is slow to increase. The raw material circulation in the market is tight, and local concentrated latex processing plants maintain the state of premium raw material procurement [2]. - Last week, the bonded and general trade warehouses in Qingdao port reduced their inventories, and the total inventory of spot in Qingdao decreased. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, resulting in a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot in Qingdao. Tire enterprises mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume [2]. - The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11750 - 12350 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13545 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11965 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was - 55 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1580 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 177633 lots, an increase of 173 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 42118 lots, a decrease of 1554 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19818 lots, an increase of 1500 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 649 lots, an increase of 1021 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 19455 tons, an increase of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rubber Prices: The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13520 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - Synthetic Rubber Prices: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of Shanghai rubber was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12221 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Thai Raw Material Prices: The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 64.11 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.69 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 3.13 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 4.95 Thai baht [2]. - Production Profits: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 109 US dollars [2]. - Import Volumes: The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 18.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.93 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 24.87 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 开工率: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Inventory Days: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2]. - Production Volumes: The monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly production volume of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.26%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.37%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.36%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Rainfall in Southeast Asia: In the first week of June 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The rainfall in the red areas north of the equator was mainly concentrated in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased; most areas south of the equator were at a low level, and the impact on tapping decreased [2]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.46 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 million tons, an increase of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 52.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2]. - Heavy - Truck Sales: In May 2025, the sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 83,000 (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April, and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].