瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250605

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/6/5 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declined by about 0.35 - 2bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rose by about 0.7bp to 1.68% and 1.90% respectively. Treasury bond futures also showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern, with TS and TF rising by 0.04% and 0.02% respectively, and T and TL contracts falling by 0.01% and 0.16% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.55%. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in May stopped falling and rebounded, and the service PMI remained in the expansion range. With the suspension of high tariffs between China and the US in May, industrial activities improved marginally, and the economy stabilized. Overseas, the growth momentum in the US weakened, with the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs in May falling more than expected and below the boom - bust line, and the growth of ADP employment in May slowing significantly. The market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut may be adjusted to September. The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiations has been basically digested. The bond market is driven by the capital and fundamental aspects, and there are no clear positive or negative factors in the short term. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and capital changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Futures Prices and Volumes: T主力收盘价108.720, down 0.01%; TF主力收盘价106.030, up 0.02%; TS主力收盘价102.430, up 0.04%; TL主力收盘价119.310, down 0.16%. T主力成交量64481, up 8772; TF主力成交量73198, up 27197; TS主力成交量49003, up 17801; TL主力成交量66642, down 3618 [2]. - Futures Spreads: TL2509 - 2506价差0.59, down 0.16; T2509 - 2506价差0.17, down 0.08; TF2509 - 2506价差0.28, down 0.00; TS2509 - 2506价差0.14, down 0.00; T06 - TL06价差 - 10.17, up 0.13; TF06 - T06价差 - 2.80, down 0.03; TS06 - T06价差 - 6.26, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06价差 - 3.46, up 0.04 [2]. - Futures Positions: T主力持仓量169240, down 405; TF主力持仓量144273, down 872; TS主力持仓量116473, down 726; TL主力持仓量93443, down 14. T前20名多头165766, down 1024; T前20名空头166255, down 963; T前20名净空仓489, up 61; TF前20名多头133649, up 3149; TF前20名空头152140, up 5592; TF前20名净空仓18491, up 2443; TS前20名多头88090, up 2; TS前20名空头104205, up 1211; TS前20名净空仓16115, up 1209; TL前20名多头88807, up 739; TL前20名空头94156, down 292; TL前20名净空仓5349, down 1031 [2]. 2. Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as 2500802.IB(6y) rising 0.0002 to 99.4137, 250007.IB(6y) rising 0.0161 to 99.0955, etc [2]. - Active Bonds: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.75bp, 1.90bp, 0.90bp, 0.50bp respectively, reaching 1.4525%, 1.4700%, 1.5260%, 1.6210%, 1.6710% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.84bp to 1.4016%, Shibor overnight remained unchanged at 1.4080%; the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 6.46bp to 1.5646%, Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.90bp to 1.5340%; the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 0.92bp to 1.5892%, Shibor 14 - day increased by 1.50bp to 1.5910% [2]. - LPR Rates: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 1265 billion, a maturity scale of 2660 billion, a net withdrawal of 1395 billion, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In May, the Caixin China Services PMI was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of service - sector operations. New service orders increased, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but costs and selling prices moved in opposite directions, putting pressure on corporate profits [2]. - The chief lawyer of the CSRC stated that the CSRC will fully implement the new development concept, deepen the reform of the science - finance system and mechanism in the capital market, give full play to the functions of the multi - tiered capital market, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium - sized investors, and support the development of technological innovation and new - quality productivity [2]. - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson refuted this, stating that China is firm in safeguarding its rights and honest in implementing the consensus. The US has unilaterally provoked new economic and trade frictions, increasing the uncertainty and instability of bilateral economic and trade relations. China firmly rejects the US's unfounded accusations and urges the US to correct its wrong actions [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On June 5, at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest - rate decision; at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31 will be released. On June 6, at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3].