贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: Economic data weakness strengthens short - term hedging demand, Fed policy delays and debt risks provide medium - term support, and central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization set the long - term tone. Attention should be paid to the June FOMC meeting guidance, US debt ceiling progress, and geopolitical situation evolution [3]. - Copper: In the next 1 - 2 weeks with little change in macro and fundamentals, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. The tariff policy negotiation between Europe and the US mainly impacts the stock market. Supply is stable, and demand depends on the impact of the tariff exemption period in mid - to late June. Copper prices are unlikely to fall significantly without a halt in the decline of LME inventory. There is no clear signal for funds to enter the market [14]. - Zinc: Fundamentally, supply will be loose in the second half of the year, but inventory is at a low level. The zinc ingot import window is temporarily closed. The increase in zinc concentrate imports is significant. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly volatile with a slowly declining center of gravity, and the short - selling logic depends on zinc ingot inventory accumulation [34]. - Aluminum: Aluminum supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and continuous inventory reduction is the short - term support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the Axis mine in Guinea is likely to remain shut down in the short term, and the market is concerned about future supply surplus. Alumina prices are under pressure as inventory reduction is approaching the end and price increases in some areas are slowing [45]. - Nickel: The nickel ore segment has support as the further decline space is limited. Nickel iron prices are slightly回调, stainless steel demand is weak, and some Indonesian producers have cut production. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are stabilizing, and nickel prices fluctuate with the non - ferrous sector. Attention should be paid to spot trading [67]. - Tin: The recent low - level hovering of tin prices is related to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. The actual production may not resume until July - August, and tin prices have rebounded due to the shrinkage of actual production compared to expectations [82]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, but as prices fall, there is a higher probability of supply - side disturbances and short - covering. The futures market may fluctuate sharply [93]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry is in the process of eliminating backward production capacity. Supply pressure increases as enterprise复产 expectations are realized, and demand may be reduced. Polysilicon fundamentals are weak [101]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price and Spread: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, and the price differences between SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot prices [4][5][7]. - Relationship with Other Indicators: Displayed the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index [9]. - Fund Holdings and Inventory: Presented the long - term fund holdings of gold and silver and the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [11][13]. Copper - Futures Data: Provided daily copper futures data including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper [15]. - Cash Data: Gave daily copper spot data, including prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of different regions, as well as spot premium and discount data [20][22]. - Import and Processing: Included copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference data [25][29]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of SHFE and LME copper and the seasonal inventory of Chinese cathode copper [13][32][33]. Zinc - Price Data: Provided zinc futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [35][39]. - Inventory: Presented the inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc and related seasonal inventory data [41][43][44]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price Data: Showed the futures and spot prices of aluminum and alumina, price differences between contracts, and premium and discount data [46][49][55]. - Inventory: Provided the inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina and related seasonal inventory data [63][64][65]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: Gave nickel futures prices, inventory, and spot average prices, as well as nickel ore prices and inventory data [68][72][74]. - Downstream Profit: Presented the profit data of downstream nickel products such as stainless steel and nickel sulfate [76][78]. Tin - Futures and Spot Data: Provided tin futures and spot prices, premium and discount data, and inventory data [83][87][89]. - Related Index: Showed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) [88]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures and Spot Data: Gave lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences between contracts, and inventory data [93][96][99]. Industrial Silicon - Spot and Futures Data: Provided industrial silicon spot and futures prices, price differences between contracts, and basis data [101]. - Downstream Product Prices: Showed the prices of downstream products such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [105][106][107]. - Production and Inventory: Presented production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon [113][116][119].