油脂油料产业日报-20250605

1. Report Core Views 1.1 Oil Core Views - Palm oil: The estimated production in the producing areas is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase adds to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin quotation weakens, subsequent ship purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, since the current soybean-palm oil price spread is still inverted, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean oil: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is expected to increase accordingly. However, on the consumption side, since there is no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter a stocking cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share in the consumption market [3]. - Rapeseed oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market on policy - expected trading has been hit. In the real supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has now arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage of peak. Subsequently, as the new supply is significantly limited, the expected marginal destocking speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed - soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption, and the consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high - inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides a bottom - support for the far - month [3]. 1.2 Oilseed Core Views - Imported soybeans: In terms of ship purchases, the external market is weak, the Brazilian premium has been slightly repaired, the domestic market is relatively strong, and the far - month crushing profit has been repaired, but there is still no origin quotation for the fourth quarter. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still relatively abundant, but there is still a gap in ship purchases for the fourth quarter [15]. - Domestic soybean meal: The supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter is relatively large, which will make the spot basis continue to be weak, while the futures market is relatively strong before the speculation of the weather market. Currently, the soybean supply of oil mills is gradually recovering, the raw material inventory is continuously rising, and the soybean meal inventory remains stable at the bottom due to more downstream pick - ups. However, the subsequent pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals will still suppress the soybean meal price in the third quarter. From the demand side, after the festival, the downstream continues to execute previous contracts, and the mood of buying as needed continues. Coupled with the limited entry of secondary fattening in the Northeast region, the stocking enthusiasm is not high, and the basis will continue to weaken [15]. - Rapeseed meal: There is still pressure on the spot supply. Without a significant increase in aquaculture production, it is difficult to reduce the inventory in the future. For the far - month supply, there is an expectation of relaxation in China - Canada relations, and the futures market shows weakness first. Subsequently, the focus should be on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 2. Oil Price Information 2.1 Oil Monthly and Inter - Variety Price Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 110 | - 24 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 154 | 26 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 44 | - 2 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 440 | 58 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 574 | 14 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 442 | 62 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 244 | 20 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 286 | - 22 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 42 | 2 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.5623 | - 0.21% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.7466 | - 0.46% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6159 | - 0.19% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 103 | - 57 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 245 | 77 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 142 | - 20 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8767 | - 1.57% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8025 | - 0.92% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.5788 | - 1.3% | [4] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8082 | - 0.05% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7984 | 0.1% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8126 | - 0.05% | | BMD Palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 3925 | - 0.58% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8480 | - 40 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 390 | - 64 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 405.233 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - palm oil | US dollars/ton | 14.94 | 0 | [7] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 7636 | 0.64% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7404 | 0% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7676 | 0.65% | | CBOT Soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 46.81 | 1.25% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 7840 | 20 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 152 | 24 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 61.652 | - 8.2296 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 590 | 100 | [12] 3. Oilseed Price Information 3.1 Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 3003 | 19 | 0.64% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2695 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2958 | 19 | 0.65% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2313 | 2 | 0.09% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2329 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2567 | 24 | 0.94% | | CBOT Yellow soybeans | 1044.75 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1769 | - 0.0116 | - 0.16% | [16][18] 3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 289 | 1 | RM01 - 05 | - 18 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 244 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 214 | 11 | | M09 - 01 | - 45 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 232 | - 12 | | Soybean meal spot in Rizhao | 2820 | - 20 | Soybean meal basis in Rizhao | - 119 | - 24 | | Rapeseed meal spot in Fujian | 2512 | - 11 | Rapeseed meal basis in Fujian | - 31 | 3 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot price spread | 308 | - 9 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures price spread | 396 | 18 | [19]