能化产品周报：烧碱-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Short - term: Maintenance in Shandong and other regions and rigid demand procurement by alumina plants limit the downside space of caustic soda prices. Mid - term: From June to July, new production capacities such as Qingdao Bay and Gansu Yaowang will be put into operation in a concentrated manner. Coupled with limited demand growth, the supply - demand is expected to turn into surplus [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price - On June 4, the closing price of the main contract (SH2509) of caustic soda was 2367 yuan/ton, a 1.95% decline from the previous trading day. In Shandong, the mainstream market transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 840 - 925 yuan/ton, and that of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda was 1350 - 1410 yuan/ton. The purchase price of 32% liquid caustic soda by large downstream alumina plants was 840 yuan/ton. The mainstream market transaction price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 930 - 1020 yuan/ton, and that of 48% liquid caustic soda was 1480 - 1570 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda plants with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a 1.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [7]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.09 percentage points to 78.37%. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.65%, a 0.35% decrease from the previous period. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased by 2.55% to 63.23% [7]. 3.3 Inventory - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons). Compared with the previous week, it decreased by 2.08% but increased by 10.22% year - on - year [8]. 3.4 Profit - On May 29, the cost - profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 495 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous week, it increased by 90 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 22.22%. The profit recovered significantly compared with 405 yuan/ton on May 22 [8].