复合肥行业周度报告

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The compound fertilizer market is in the tail end of the summer fertilizer season, with limited new orders and a decrease in production activity, leading to a 3.3% decline in supply [1] - Prices for urea, monoammonium phosphate, and compound fertilizers have decreased, while potassium chloride and potassium sulfate prices remain stable, indicating a bearish trend in raw material costs [3] - The supply-demand relationship is easing as both production and inventory levels decline, with expectations of continued downward pressure on compound fertilizer prices due to weak demand [4] Market Overview - During the period from May 30 to June 5, 2025, among the monitored compound fertilizer products, one price increased by 2.13%, while nine prices decreased by 0.1% to 3.64% [6] - The average price of compound fertilizer (45%S) is reported at 2930 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous period, with a price fluctuation range of 2880 to 3100 CNY/ton [10] - The market sentiment is cautious, with limited trading activity as the summer fertilizer season concludes [2][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current sample inventory stands at 69.76 million tons, down 5.67 million tons or 7.52% from the previous period, indicating a favorable condition for the market [18] - Production has decreased to 107.22 million tons, down 8.55 million tons or 7.97%, with a capacity utilization rate of 37.13%, reflecting a 2.96% decline [18] - The supply-demand balance is negative, with expectations of a continued negative balance but a narrowing gap in the future [17] Cost and Profit Analysis - The theoretical profit for compound fertilizer production is reported at 191.2 CNY/ton, a decrease of 8 CNY/ton from the previous period, with raw material prices contributing to cost fluctuations [20] - The profit margin for urea is reported at 342 CNY/ton, showing a 10 CNY/ton increase, while monoammonium phosphate remains in negative profit territory [24][29] Supply Analysis - The total weekly production of compound fertilizer is reported at 107.22 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 37.13%, indicating a downward trend in production due to seasonal factors [30] - The production load in major regions like Shandong and Henan has decreased, while some enterprises in Hubei and Anhui are increasing production to meet summer replenishment needs [30] Demand Analysis - The harvesting progress of winter wheat is reported at 42.5%, with various regions showing different levels of completion [33] - The demand for major agricultural products remains stable with slight fluctuations, particularly in corn and wheat prices, which are influenced by seasonal factors and market conditions [37] Inventory Analysis - The inventory of compound fertilizer among monitored enterprises has decreased to 69.76 million tons, reflecting a 7.52% decline, with various regions experiencing different levels of inventory reduction [39] Related Market Analysis - The urea market continues to operate under weak conditions, with prices in Shandong dropping to 1800-1860 CNY/ton [41] - The market for monoammonium phosphate is experiencing a slight decline, with limited new orders and a focus on export opportunities [41] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued downward adjustments in compound fertilizer prices, influenced by supply constraints and weak demand as the summer season concludes [47]