Group 1: Report Information - Report date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Research fellows: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon 06 contract has entered a stalemate stage. The closing price of PS2507 was 34,540 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. The trading volume was 127,429 lots, and the open interest was 65,802 lots, with a net decrease of 2,071 lots [4] Market Outlook - After the end of the terminal rush to install and the policy being in a vacuum period, the weak spot price limits the rebound space. The supply in the first week of June is expected to remain at 22,000 tons, and the expected monthly output is less than 100,000 tons. The expected production increase during the wet season is difficult to materialize, and there is still an expected agreement to cut production in June, which supports the current futures and spot prices. The weak reality is mainly reflected in the fact that the downstream photovoltaic terminal "rush to install" is gradually coming to an end, and the demand has decreased significantly month-on-month. Overall, the logic of the shortage of deliverable goods has been falsified and is difficult to hype again. The weak reality limits the rebound space. Before the production cut is implemented, the short-term price will be in a stalemate, and it is advisable to wait and see [4] Group 3: Market News - As of June 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,030 lots, a net increase of 110 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the number of polysilicon orders traded this week was limited, and the prices remained stable for the time being. The transaction price range of n-type recycled materials was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 34,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 34,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of p-type polysilicon was 30,000 - 33,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 31,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [5]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250606
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-06 02:03