PTA、MEG早报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and the spot basis rebounding. The PTA supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the spot market liquidity is tight due to previous continuous destocking, resulting in a strong - running spot basis. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production and load. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC+ meeting results on oil prices and changes in polyester plants [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated, with the price center rising first and then falling on Thursday. The market negotiation was acceptable, and the basis strengthened moderately. It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June is still tight, so the spot basis will mainly maintain a strong operation. The short - and medium - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign, which supports the price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, and the destocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises have an operating rate of less than 70%, with over - capacity of low - end products leading to intense price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [8][9]. - Current logic and risks: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals are neutral, with the spot basis being positive, the factory inventory decreasing, the 20 - day moving average upward but the closing price below it, and the net long position of the main contract decreasing. It is expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate within a range [5]. - MEG: The fundamentals are neutral, with the basis strengthening, the port inventory in the East China region increasing, the 20 - day moving average upward but the closing price below it, and the net short position of the main contract increasing. The short - and medium - term supply - demand structure is favorable [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory trends [12]. - Price Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various price spreads of bottle chips, as well as the price spreads, basis, and inventory data of PTA and MEG, which are sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][14][27][30][34][37]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory, sourced from Wind [40][41][43][52]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the production status of the polyester industry chain [53][57]. - Profit Data: It shows the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production profits of polyester fibers (staple fibers, filaments), sourced from Wind and Mysteel [62][63][66].