建信期货生猪日报-20250606

Report Information - Report Date: June 06, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Theme: Premium Restoration, Re - takeoff [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs tends to increase, the demand weakens again after the festival, and the supply - demand remains loose. The spot price of live pigs is mainly weak. Futures contracts are at a discount to the spot, and are mainly weak due to the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and the expected slaughter of second - fattened pigs. The rhythm of second - fattening in the later stage should be continuously monitored [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 5th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose and fell back, with narrow - range fluctuations. It closed with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 13,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,445 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,485 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 550 lots to 164,502 lots [7] - Spot Market: On the 5th, the average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 14.21 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - Demand Side: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the utilization rate of pigsties is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for supplementary stocking in second - fattening has decreased, with most in a wait - and - see state. As the temperature rises, terminal demand weakens, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have declined. On June 5th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 143,000 heads, an increase of 1,000 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 12,200 heads from a week ago [7] - Supply Side: According to Yongyi sample data, the slaughter volume of the breeding side in June may continue to increase month - on - month. The breeding side slaughters normally. With the inversion of the fat - to - standard price difference, the previously second - fattened pigs are actively slaughtered one after another, and the slaughter weight remains high [7] 2. Industry News - In May, the average sales price of 15KG piglets in the market was 627 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% [10] - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit from fattening purchased piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [10] 3. Data Overview - In May, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 129.5 kg, an increase of 0.6 kg from April, with a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [17] - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 2.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7 percentage points, with sporadic supplementary stocking as the main form [17] - As of the end of May, the price of compound feed for live pigs was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month, and up 2% year - on - year [17] - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg, and a decrease of 4.38% compared with 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The cost of fattening purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg, and a decrease of 5.9% compared with 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [17] - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [17]