建信期货油脂日报-20250606

Report Information - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The oil and fat sector lacks obvious drivers, mainly short - term speculation on news or high - frequency supply - demand data. Rapeseed oil fluctuates around 9000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada economic and trade negotiations. The market expects a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of May, which suppresses the upward movement of the market, but strong exports support the market, continuing the range - bound trend. Brazil's abundant soybean supply pressures the market, and attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. The improvement of the supply situation may put pressure on soybean oil and other oil and fat products. Selling soybean oil call options can be considered, with risks including weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Quotes: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - refined rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - grade rapeseed oil 09 + 250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first - grade soybean oil: 09 + 280 in early June, 09 + 260 from June to July, 09 + 270 from June to September, 01 + 330 from October to January. East China 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 450 yuan/ton [7] - Market Analysis: The oil and fat sector lacks obvious drivers. Rapeseed oil fluctuates around 9000 yuan, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade negotiations and far - month ship purchases. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to exceed 2 million tons in late May for the first time this year, suppressing the market, but strong exports support it. Brazil's abundant soybean supply pressures the market, and attention should be paid to soybean imports and crushing. Selling soybean oil call options can be considered [7] 2. Industry News - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% and oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month - on - month [8] - Exports: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, a 62,700 - ton increase from the previous month. According to ITS, exports were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][21]