大越期货纯碱早报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming. Supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has declined but is still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,203 yuan/ton, and the basis is 27 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot. It is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The total domestic soda ash plant inventory is 162.70 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Market: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. It is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - Bullish Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,225 yuan/ton | 1,230 yuan/ton | 5 yuan | | Current Value | 1,203 yuan/ton | 1,230 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Increase/Decrease | - 1.80% | 0.00% | 440.00% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 12.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 78.52%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize. The weekly output of soda ash is 685,100 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 369,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 billion tons, 1.8 billion tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [22]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [25]. - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,300 tons, and the operating rate of 75.73% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [28]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total domestic soda ash plant inventory is 162.70 million tons, of which the heavy soda ash inventory is 83.70 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].