大越期货白糖早报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the next year, with USDA predicting a 4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season. As the price of foreign sugar weakens, the import profit window opens, and subsequent imports are likely to increase, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices. Zhengzhou sugar generally maintains a weak pattern, and the strategy of shorting on rallies during intraday trading is recommended [4][5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the domestic sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. Negative factors include the increase in global sugar production, the expected global supply surplus in the new year, the drop in foreign sugar prices below 17 cents per pound, and the increased import impact [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: USDA predicts a 4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool forecasts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons in the 25/26 season. Since January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, approaching the tariff for out-of-quota imported raw sugar. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1072 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (compared to 57.73% in the same period last year). In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 80,000 tons year-on-year, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 85,400 tons, a decrease of 105,500 tons year-on-year [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,190 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 460 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a negative factor [6]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, with the net long position increasing, but the main trend is unclear, which is a positive factor [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (USDA): From 2017 - 2024, data on initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory-consumption ratio are presented, showing the changing trends of global sugar supply and demand over the years [38]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April estimates) are provided, including sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices, etc., reflecting the supply and demand situation of China's sugar market [42]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (Brick): From 2017 - 2024, data on initial inventory, production, imports, total domestic supply, domestic consumption, total domestic consumption, ending inventory, and inventory-consumption ratio are presented, showing the changing trends of China's sugar supply and demand over the years [45]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.