Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous weak market of coke and coking coal futures has changed, and positive factors in fundamentals and news are accumulating. However, considering the continuous impact of high supply in the early stage and only an expected decline in supply in the future, whether it will lead to a turning point for a rebound needs further market verification [10]. - It is expected that the spot prices of coke and coking coal and the coke futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. But the coking coal futures price has a demand to repair a large discount and may turn to rebound or strong - side fluctuations. The coking coal futures - spot price difference may narrow, and the decline in the coke - to - coking coal ratio also helps investors try the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On June 5, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures respectively gave back more than half and nearly half of the previous day's gains, and then the decline narrowed. The JM2509 contract was relatively stronger. The J2509 contract closed at 1342 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.56%, and the JM2509 contract closed at 757 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.68% [5]. - Spot Market and Technical Analysis: On June 5, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts continued to rise but at a slower pace. The daily MACD green bars of the two contracts continued to narrow significantly, and the daily MACD indicator of the coke 2509 contract was close to a golden cross [8]. - Future Outlook: - Coke: The output of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. The output of steel mills' coke has also decreased compared with late April. Port inventories have dropped significantly in the past six weeks, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills is slow, and coking plant inventories have started to accumulate, adding downward pressure on prices. Tonnage coke profits have been in the red for two consecutive weeks due to two rounds of price cuts in May [9]. - Coking Coal: The year - on - year growth of imports from January to April turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants reached a new high since February 2021, and the clean coal inventory reached a new high since October 2020. The inventories of independent coking plants have decreased significantly in the past six weeks, and port inventories have returned to normal levels. Steel mill inventories have increased steadily with a narrowing growth rate. If coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, the rebound of coking coal spot prices will be restricted [9]. - Comprehensive Analysis: Positive factors in fundamentals and news are accumulating. However, due to the continuous impact of high supply in the early stage, it is still uncertain whether the market will rebound. Coke and coking coal spot prices and coke futures prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, while coking coal futures prices may rebound or fluctuate strongly [10]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 5, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin". The proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.2% in 2024 compared with 2023, while the proportion of clean energy consumption increased by 2.2 percentage points to 28.6% [11]. - On June 4, the National Energy Administration announced the first - batch pilot projects for the construction of a new - type power system, aiming to improve the proportion of green electricity in data centers [12]. - On May 28, the new - energy power generation output of the Northwest Power Grid reached 111.24 million kilowatts, accounting for 70.1% of the total power generation, and the daily new - energy power generation reached 1.621 billion kilowatt - hours, both hitting new highs [12]. - As of May 31, the Zhunneng Group's monthly commodity coal production reached 5.5 million tons, and the stripping volume reached 29.109 million cubic meters, both hitting new highs for the same period [12]. - On June 3, the China Iron and Steel Association held an online discussion on the carbon quota allocation plan. The total crude steel output of participating enterprises accounted for 66% of the national total [12]. - In late May, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.94 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.7% [12]. - As of May 31, Baotou Steel Co., Ltd. had not carried out share repurchases. Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. repurchased 1.262 million shares on June 4 [12]. - On June 4, Baowu's chairman inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia, which is in the capacity - ramping - up stage and aims to reach an annual capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter [13]. - Russia's oil and gas revenue in May decreased by 35% year - on - year to 512.7 billion rubles (about $6.55 billion) and by 53% from April [13]. - In May 2025, the coal imports of 12 large state - owned ports in India were 16.952 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4% [13]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron output, inventories of coke and coking coal, tonnage coke profits, and the basis of futures and spot prices [15][16][24].
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250606
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-06 02:11