大越期货豆粕早报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - 豆粕: The domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean production area weather supports the bottom of the US soybean price, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit the rebound height. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market. The M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2940 and 3000 [8]. - 大豆: The domestic soybean price is affected by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production limit the rebound height. The A2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - 豆粕: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 29.8 tons, up 44.03% from last week and down 65.19% from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract are increasing, but the funds are flowing out [8]. - 大豆: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582.88 tons, up 3.97% from last week and up 20.45% from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The domestic arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in May, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - 豆粕: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors include the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in June and the bumper harvest in South America [13]. - 大豆: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors include the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot and futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided from May 27 to June 5, along with the basis data [15][17]. - Inventory: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 to 2024. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal is also presented, with the oil - mill soybean inventory increasing and the soybean meal inventory remaining low [31][32][44]. - Supply and Demand: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2024 - 2025 are detailed, along with the data on US soybean exports, oil - mill soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig industry [33][34][38]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific information about position data other than the change in the main contract's long and short positions mentioned in the views and strategies section.