野村东方国际 海外工程机械龙头近期情况和行业展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the global construction machinery market, with expectations of year-on-year growth by 2026, despite a slight decline in the US market this year [1][3]. Core Insights - The construction machinery market shows resilience, with leading companies experiencing improved orders and inventory levels, indicating a recovery trend [1][3]. - Infrastructure investments in the US, driven by the Infrastructure and Jobs Act, are expected to maintain growth momentum through 2025 and 2026, although the real estate sector remains cautious due to high interest rates [1][6][8]. - The mining sector is projected to sustain equipment demand, supported by stable capital expenditures from major mining companies, despite a decline in oil and gas prices [1][9]. - Emerging markets like Indonesia and Brazil are experiencing growth driven by infrastructure and mining demand, with Chinese manufacturers expected to increase market share due to competitive pricing and strategic partnerships [1][18]. Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global construction machinery market is anticipated to grow year-on-year by 2026, with signs of recovery in leading companies' orders and inventory [1][3]. - The US market is expected to see a slight decline this year, but overall demand remains stable due to infrastructure investments [1][5]. US Market Dynamics - US construction machinery demand is closely tied to real estate, infrastructure, energy, and mining investments, with infrastructure accounting for approximately 50% of demand [5][7]. - The real estate sector is under pressure from high interest rates, leading to a cautious outlook for machinery demand [6][8]. - Infrastructure spending in the US is expected to remain supported through 2025 and 2026, with significant funding already allocated [7][8]. Mining Sector Impact - Despite a drop in oil and gas prices, metal prices remain high, supporting stable capital expenditures in the mining sector, which is crucial for equipment demand [1][9]. Equipment Rental Trends - North American equipment rental companies are expected to maintain revenue growth despite a slight decline in capital expenditures due to high interest rates [1][10]. Company Performance - Caterpillar's North American revenue has faced challenges, but backlog orders have reached historical highs, and price increases since 2021 have alleviated pricing pressures [1][11][13]. - Komatsu and Volvo anticipate a decline in North American demand in 2025, while Hitachi expects a slight decrease, reflecting concerns over housing and infrastructure demand [1][14][15]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing growth driven by infrastructure and mining demand, with Chinese manufacturers gaining market share due to competitive advantages [1][18][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends SANY Group as a top investment choice due to its strong profit margin resilience and overall performance, followed by XCMG Group and Zoomlion for their competitive positioning in the market [1][27].