瑞银：富途控股_2025 年 AIC_加密业务更新、香港银行同业拆借利率（HIBOR）下降及港股市场空间的影响

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Futu Holdings with a price target of US$149.00 [6][24]. Core Insights - Futu Holdings is expanding its crypto-related capabilities, having launched crypto trading services in Hong Kong in Q3 2024 and introduced crypto deposit services, which have been well-received by the Web3 community [2]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recent Stablecoin Bill passed in Hong Kong, which allows for public sales of stablecoins, and is exploring new stablecoin-based solutions for cross-border transactions through Airstar Bank [2]. - Futu expects limited earnings pressure from falling HIBOR due to its currency mix, where HKD accounts for a smaller portion of interest-earning assets compared to borrowings [3]. - The company anticipates significant growth potential in Hong Kong, aiming for a 40% retail investor penetration in the medium term by enhancing its product offerings and services [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Futu Holdings show a growth trajectory from HK$7.32 billion in 2022 to an estimated HK$39.83 billion by 2029 [5]. - Pre-tax profit is expected to increase from HK$3.36 billion in 2022 to HK$30.65 billion by 2029 [5]. - Net earnings are projected to rise from HK$2.95 billion in 2022 to HK$25.13 billion by 2029 [5]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to grow from HK$20.47 in 2022 to HK$178.20 by 2029 [5]. Market Metrics - Futu Holdings has a market capitalization of US$14.4 billion and an average daily trading volume of 2.786 million shares [6]. - The stock price as of May 30, 2025, was US$101.93, with a 52-week range of US$128.93 to US$55.54 [6]. Forecast Returns - The forecast price appreciation for Futu Holdings is estimated at 38.3%, with no expected dividend yield, leading to a total forecast stock return of 38.3% [8].