摩根士丹利：追踪美国消费者_走出 “解放周” 让消费者松口气

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [3] Core Insights - US consumer sentiment and electronics spending intentions improved month-over-month (M/M) in May, attributed to de-escalating tariffs, although both metrics remain negative and volatile [2][7] - The May AlphaWise Consumer Survey indicated the first M/M uptick in consumer sentiment since 2024, reaching a four-month high, while next six-month (N6M) consumer electronics spending intentions also saw a significant increase, reaching a near four-year high [2][8] - Despite the improvements, both consumer sentiment and N6M spending intentions are still in negative territory, indicating that further stabilization in tariff and inflation concerns is necessary for a sustained positive trend [2][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment improved by 11 points M/M, with a net 6% of consumers expecting the economy to worsen in the next six months, an 11-point improvement from April [11][12] - The household financial situation sentiment also improved, with a net 14% expecting an improvement in the next six months, up 4 points from April [12] Spending Intentions - Next month consumer electronics net spending intentions increased by 5 points M/M to -1%, the highest since February 2023, while PC net spending intentions increased by 7 points to -3% [8][19] - N6M consumer electronics net spending intentions improved by 17 points M/M to -8%, with lower-income households seeing a 15-point uptick to -15% and higher-income households a 25-point increase to +9% [8][30] Tariff Impact - In May, 36% of survey respondents expected to spend less overall in response to tariffs, down 6 points from April, indicating a positive shift due to lower tariff rates [10][32] - Only 13% of consumers reported pulling forward spending due to tariffs, which is lower than other categories like groceries and household staples [10][34]