芳烃橡胶早报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - PTA: Long - filament production cuts have been implemented, but additional supply cuts in TA have postponed the inventory inflection point. The far - month supply is likely to remain at a high level due to good profitability, but inventory changes are highly volatile under uncertain demand, so it is advisable to focus on the potential for production cuts in short - fiber and bottle - grade products in the near term [2]. - MEG: There are unexpected device issues in the near term. With an unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and short - term resilience in demand, port inventory is expected to decline more significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Polyester Short Fiber: With the further compression of short - fiber spot profitability and no significant improvement in demand, the possibility of marginal supply reduction increases. Attention should be paid to short - term opportunities to expand processing margins [3]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory has slightly decreased, the price of Thai cup rubber has rebounded slightly, and the trade war has eased. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From May 29 to June 5, the price of crude oil increased by 0.4, the price of PTA decreased by 20, the PTA processing margin increased by 8, and the polyester gross profit increased by 6 [2]. - Device Changes: The 3 million - ton Jiatong device restarted [2]. - Market Conditions: In the near term, TA has both maintenance and restart, with a slight decline in the operating rate. After the implementation of long - filament production cuts, the polyester operating rate has decreased, inventory has continued to decline, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing margin has remained basically flat [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From May 29 to June 5, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 1, the MEG inner - market price increased by 8, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 8 [3]. - Device Changes: The 340,000 - ton Yangzi device restarted, and the 400,000 - ton Yankuang device reduced its load [3]. - Market Conditions: In the near term, domestic oil - based devices have restarted while coal - based devices are under maintenance, with the overall operating rate basically flat. With less arrivals at ports, port inventory has continued to decline, downstream inventory levels have increased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and profitability has remained high [3]. Polyester Short Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From May 29 to June 5, the price of 1.4D cotton - type short fiber decreased by 20, the short - fiber profit decreased by 6, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 20 [3]. - Market Conditions: In the near term, device operation has been stable, with an operating rate of 93.2%. Production and sales have remained the same, and inventory has remained stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has remained flat, and finished - product inventory has increased month - on - month, with profitability fluctuating at a low level [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From May 29 to June 5, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 30, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 260, and the price of Thai cup rubber decreased by 7 [3]. - Spread and Other Changes: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 50, the spread between US - dollar Thai standard rubber and NR main contract increased by 34, and the spread between glue and cup rubber decreased by 0 [3]. Styrene - Price Changes: From May 29 to June 5, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by 5, and the price of styrene increased by 5 [4]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 189, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 5 [4].