原油成品油早报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. High refinery profits in the short term are likely to lead to an expected increase in refinery operations. A decline in leading indicators for US shale oil and a stalemate in US - Iran negotiations contribute to this outlook [5]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil has a bearish outlook due to OPEC's supply policies and potential supply - demand imbalances [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Saudi Arabia is pushing the OPEC alliance to increase production again, which may put downward pressure on international oil prices as it could exacerbate the risk of supply surplus in the second half of the year. A similar move in the past might trigger a new price war [3]. - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in July by 20 cents per barrel to a nearly four - year low [3]. - Iraq's oil exports have decreased because it failed to receive and export oil from the Kurdish region and was forced to cut production to comply with OPEC quotas [4]. - Hamas leaders are ready to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [4]. Regional Fundamentals - US oil market data for the week of May 23: Crude exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a 0.63% decline); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (a 0.2% increase); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries decreased while that of Shandong local refineries increased this week. The production of gasoline and diesel both rose, with production from major refineries increasing and that from independent refineries decreasing. The sales - to - production ratio of gasoline increased and that of diesel decreased at local refineries. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded and that of local refineries improved [5]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After the OPEC's July production increase decision was made, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as the threat of oil supply disruptions from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the ongoing stalemate in US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in a major oil - producing province in Canada [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained largely flat. US commercial crude inventories decreased more than expected, with absolute inventories lower than the past three years, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased more than expected [5]. - On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as expected, Iran's production increased in April, and the production compliance rate within OPEC + rose in April [5]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly under - expected. The summer travel season has begun, leading to an increase in demand for gasoline and jet fuel [5].