Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. It is affected by news in the short - term and will continue neutral oscillation after the fluctuations subside. TMT has become popular again, and all major A - share indices have closed higher [2]. - 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond interest rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds are relatively strong [2]. - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a volatile consolidation phase [2]. - Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory, and iron ore and coke are in different market conditions [2]. - Gold and silver are differentiated. Gold has resistance at the previous high, and silver is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Stock Index - Index short - term is affected by news, and after the fluctuations subside, it continues neutral oscillation. TMT is popular again, and all major A - share indices close higher. It is recommended to mainly wait and see and sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an execution price around 5700 in July to collect the premium [2]. Treasury Bond - 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.95%. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations for the unilateral strategy and wait and see for now. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract for the spot - futures strategy, and pay attention to the opportunity of band steepening for the curve strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted after the volatility increases. Silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high of $34.8 and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a volatile consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the 08 contract is expected to oscillate between 2050 - 2250 points [2]. Steel - Industrial materials demand and inventory are poor. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. Unilateral operations are mainly on hold, and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of buying finished products and shorting raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is in an interval oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2]. Coke - Mainstream steel mills started the third round of price cuts on June 4. Coke is weak and making concessions, and the futures have advanced rebound expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, and coal mine production has declined from a high level. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - Domestic and overseas inventories are increasing simultaneously, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. Nickel - The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The market maintains oscillation, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [2]. Tin - The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. After the sentiment stabilizes, a short - selling strategy from high levels is recommended [2]. Crude Oil - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders has eased market concerns. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see during the oscillation period. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. Urea - The upstream inventory continues to increase in the short - term, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, with limited support for the market. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is still bottom - grinding in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for rebound opportunities. The main contract is expected to fluctuate around [1740, 1850] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but there is still support due to the tight spot situation. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 6500 - 6900 range, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The PTA price has support at low levels. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2]. Short - fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to expand the processing fee at the low level of the PF disk [2]. Bottle - chip - During the peak demand season, there is a production - reduction expectation for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity. It is recommended to buy at around 4200 for EG09 and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low levels [2]. Styrene - In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the opportunity of raw material resonance decline. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels and pay attention to the raw material resonance opportunity [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Attention should be paid to the inventory and cost. The 7 - 9 positive arbitrage position should be held [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Indian BIS policy in June. A high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. The short position of BR2507 should be reduced [2]. LLDPE - The spot price has risen with the market, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. A short - selling strategy from high levels gradually is recommended [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation phase [2]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - CBOT has stabilized, and the two are oscillating. M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the festival, and the spot price is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the performance around 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is expected to oscillate around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The production has increased, and the market is in an oscillating consolidation phase. Palm oil is expected to test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. A short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 07 contract is recommended, and short positions should be held [2]. Apple - The bagging is in progress, and the trading is priced according to quality. The main contract is expected to run around 7700 [2]. Jujube - The market price is weakly stable and is in a bottom - building phase [2]. Peanut - The market price is oscillating. The main contract is expected to run around 8400 [2]. Soda Ash - The oversupply logic continues. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, and short positions should be held. A 7 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy between months is recommended [2]. Glass - The market sentiment has reversed, and the market has rebounded. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Rubber - The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. A short - selling strategy on rebounds above 14000 is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and declined slightly [2]. Polysilicon - The spot price has stabilized, and the polysilicon futures have declined in an oscillating manner. If there are long positions, it is recommended to close them first [2]. Lithium Carbonate - The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].
广发期货日评-20250606
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-06 05:08