原木期货日报-20250606

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]