有色早报-20250606

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The macro level shows a weakening signal, and the domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral, with inventory increases potentially suppressing absolute prices [1]. - Aluminum supply increases slightly, demand in May - June doesn't decline significantly, there is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline steadily from May to July. Consider holding calendar spreads if the absolute price drops [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases in June, domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand recovers slightly. Pay attention to the inventory turning point and hold short positions. Consider partial profit - taking on calendar spreads [2]. - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction opportunity can be continuously monitored [3]. - Stainless steel supply recovers seasonally in April and some mills cut production in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Lead prices fluctuate downward. Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [5]. - Tin prices decline. Supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [8]. - Industrial silicon supply may increase in the future, and prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [11]. - Lithium carbonate prices decline. In the medium - long term, prices will likely oscillate weakly, and prices are expected to decline after oscillation next week [13]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 50, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3350, and the LME cash - 3M spread widened [1]. - Market Analysis: Overseas, a large amount of Russian copper was withdrawn from LME warehouses and entered the Chinese market. In China, the cross - month spread and spot premium remained stable, and downstream demand may weaken. The supply disruption at the Kamora copper mine may affect the annual output of Ivanhoe [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the LME inventory decreased by 2025 [1]. - Market Analysis: Supply increases slightly, demand doesn't decline significantly, there is a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline steadily [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 875 [2]. - Market Analysis: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases in June, domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand recovers slightly. Pay attention to the inventory turning point [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 500, and the LME inventory decreased by 900 [3]. - Market Analysis: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the nickel - stainless steel price ratio contraction opportunity can be continuously monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100 [3]. - Market Analysis: Supply recovers seasonally in April and some mills cut production in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the lead spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 1100 [4][5]. - Market Analysis: Lead prices fluctuate downward. Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [5]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the tin spot import profit increased by 48.39, and the LME inventory decreased by 160 [8]. - Market Analysis: Tin prices decline. Supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 145, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 887 [11]. - Market Analysis: Supply may increase in the future, and prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From May 29 to June 5, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 140 [13]. - Market Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices decline. In the medium - long term, prices will likely oscillate weakly, and prices are expected to decline after oscillation next week [13].