国债期货周报：债市震荡走强，警惕长端补跌-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals showed a slight weakening in April, but the official manufacturing PMI stopped falling and rebounded in May, and the economic situation is expected to show a marginal improvement trend. Overseas, the US economic growth momentum has weakened, and the overall economic outlook remains pessimistic. The bond market has returned to being driven by the capital and fundamental factors. The capital situation this month may remain balanced and loose, but one should be wary of the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread corrections [9][10][96] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures rose by 0.92%, 0.41%, 0.26%, and 0.10% respectively. The trading volumes of TS and TF main contracts increased, while those of T and TL main contracts decreased. The open interests of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased [13][31] - Treasury Bond Futures Market Review: The closing prices of the main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures showed an upward trend this week [16][23] 2. News Review and Analysis - Key News Review: From January to April, the national social logistics total was 115.3 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In May, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, and the service PMI was 51.1. Twenty cities were short - listed for the urban renewal action, with central financial subsidies expected to exceed 20 billion yuan. The US economic activity slightly declined, and the two heads of state agreed to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible [34][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond yields, and between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures all slightly widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year contracts weakened slightly, and those of 30 - year contracts fluctuated. The inter - period spreads of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts both weakened slightly [42][49][53] - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract decreased significantly [66] - Interest Rate Changes: The overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates all declined, and the 1 - month Shibor rate fluctuated slightly at 1.62%. The yields of domestic treasury bond cash bonds all declined. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields both narrowed slightly [70][74] - Open Market Operations: The central bank conducted 93.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 160.26 billion yuan in reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 67.17 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.53% [77] - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, bonds worth 173.0761 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 12.8872 billion yuan and a net financing of 27.9365 billion yuan [81] - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 3 basis points this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB weakened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield fluctuated downward, and the VIX index declined slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China declined significantly, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [86][89][93] 4. Market Outlook and Strategies - Market Outlook: Domestically, the fundamentals are expected to show a marginal improvement. Overseas, the US economic outlook remains pessimistic, and one should be wary of the impact of the expected difference on the market [96] - Strategies: The possibility of consecutive interest rate cuts is low. The bond market is now driven by the capital and fundamental factors. The capital situation this month may remain balanced and loose. One should be wary of the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread corrections [97]