合成橡胶市场周报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The spot - futures price difference widened, and the raw material trading improved, but the downstream demand was weak [8]. - Recently, the production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. Some private enterprises may further reduce production. Under the influence of weak cost and bearish macro - economic expectations, traders are selling at a loss. The inventory of producers increased slightly this week, while that of traders decreased slightly [8]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline this week. After the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders of tire enterprises are average, and the inventory removal is slow. Some enterprises still have maintenance plans, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,750 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price declined and then rebounded. The mainstream sales company lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton. As of June 5, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased but there are still losses. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to decline. After the holiday, most enterprises have resumed production, but the overall orders are average, and some enterprises still have maintenance plans [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose by 1.39% this week [12]. - As of June 6, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 145 [20]. - As of June 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 5,950 tons, a decrease of 260 tons from last week [23]. - Spot market - As of June 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of June 5, the basis of butadiene rubber was 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of June 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 557.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - As of June 6, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.08% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week [34]. - Industry - In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons from last month [38]. - As of June 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 67.25%, a decrease of 6.29% from last week [38]. - As of June 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 882 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - As of June 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,680 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from last week [46]. - Downstream - As of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year [49]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% from the previous month and an increase of 6.11% from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% from the same period last year [52]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.