瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250606

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market continued its weak performance this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,800 - 1,860 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,700 - 1,800 in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed lower this week, with a weekly decline of 2.99% [9]. Inter - delivery Spread - As of June 6, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 51 [12]. Position Analysis - As of June 6, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 6,069, a decrease of 887 from last week [20]. Group 3: Spot Market Domestic Spot Price - As of June 5, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,870 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 30 yuan [26]. Foreign Spot Price - As of June 5, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. Basis - As of June 5, the urea basis was 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton from last week [33]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of June 4, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of June 5, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.66 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.12 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation Production Capacity Utilization and Output - As of June 5, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 143.94 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45%. The production capacity utilization rate was 89.43%, a decrease of 0.40% from the previous period, and the trend changed from rising to falling [40]. Inventory - As of June 5, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 20.5 tons, unchanged from last week. As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 103.54 tons, an increase of 5.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.59% [43]. Export - In April 2025, the export volume of urea was 2,252.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%; the average export price was 217.39 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22.06% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of June 5, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week [49].