贵金属市场周报：关税预期反复扰动，降息预期提振金价-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market maintained a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Gold had a phased rebound driven by risk - aversion sentiment, and silver was particularly strong under the impetus of interest - rate cut expectations. The silver price reached a new high since 2013 on Thursday night. Future market trends depend on the non - farm payroll report and the Fed's policy guidance. If the non - farm payroll data is better than expected, the gold price may face downward pressure; otherwise, the expectation of Fed rate cuts may boost the prices of precious metals. In the long run, Trump's tariff policy, the US debt issue, and economic slowdown form triple pressures, which are structurally beneficial to the precious metals market. The continuous inflow of funds into the silver ETF and the significant increase in positions may indicate strong upward momentum for silver, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to decline [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - Market Review: The precious metals market was volatile and upward - trending. Gold rebounded due to risk - aversion sentiment, and silver was strong due to interest - rate cut expectations. The Trump administration's tariff policy, weak US economic data, and geopolitical risks all affected the market. The global gold ETF had a net outflow of $1.58 billion in May, while the silver ETF had a continuous inflow [7]. - Market Outlook: The market is waiting for the non - farm payroll report and Fed policy guidance. If the non - farm payroll data is better than expected, the gold price may fall; otherwise, the expectation of Fed rate cuts will be boosted. If the Fed cuts rates, silver may remain strong. In the long run, the precious metals market is structurally beneficial, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline. The suggested price ranges for relevant contracts are provided [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of June 6, 2025, COMEX silver was at $35.67 per ounce, up 8.16% month - on - month; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8,830 yuan per kilogram, up 7.47%. COMEX gold was at $3,352.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 783.24 yuan per gram, up 1.48% [12]. - ETF Positions: As of June 5, 2025, the SLV silver ETF position was 14,673 tons, up 2.60% month - on - month; the SPDR gold ETF position was 935.65 tons, up 0.60% [17]. - COMEX Net Positions: As of May 27, 2025, the COMEX gold net position was 174,184, up 6.22% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 53,012, up 5.94% [21]. - Basis Changes: As of June 6, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.24 yuan per gram, down 25% month - on - month; the silver basis was 19 yuan per kilogram, down 56.8% [24]. - Inventory Changes: As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 17,847 kilograms, up 3.48%; the silver inventory was 1,117,940 kilograms, up 4.79% [29]. 3. Industry Supply and Demand Silver - Import Data: As of April 2025, China's silver import volume was 280,638.23 kilograms, up 13.56% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and concentrates was 123,247,164 kilograms, down 4.55% [35]. - Downstream Production: As of April 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4,170,000 pieces, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [39]. - Supply - Demand Pattern: As of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [44][48]. Gold - Price Changes: As of June 5, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 779 yuan per gram, up 0.32% month - on - month. The prices of gold products from major brands all increased [52]. - Demand Changes: As of the first quarter of 2025, the gold investment demand was 50,741 ounces, up 71.93% month - on - month; the total demand was 120,440.4 ounces, up 7.12% month - on - month. The gold ETF had a net outflow in May [54][58]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - Macroeconomic Data: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield both declined. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased. In May 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [60][65][75].