Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, the prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all increased. The prices of domestic soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil in the spot market were stable or declined, and the basis decreased. The drought situation in the US soybean - growing areas has eased, and the planting progress is fast. South American soybean supply is abundant. In the domestic market, soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil inventories are increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Overall, the soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [6][7][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Soybean (Bean 1): This week, the main 2507 contract rose 0.78% to 4149 yuan/ton. With tight high - protein soybean sources and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. - Imported Soybean (Bean 2): The main 2509 contract rose 1.66% to 3618 yuan/ton. Focus is on US soybean planting weather. US planting is fast, demand is weak, and South American supply is abundant, so it is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [7]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2509 contract rose 1.42% to 3010 yuan/ton. High imports and high - pressure oil mill operations lead to inventory accumulation. Demand is weak, so it is expected to decline weakly. The strategy is to short on rallies [9][10]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2509 contract rose 1.31% to 7738 yuan/ton. High soybean inventories in oil mills and potential improvement in China - Canada relations lead to supply - strong and demand - weak situation. It is expected to decline weakly, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Prices: This week, the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose, with increases of 0.78%, 1.42%, and 1.31% respectively [15][21][27]. - Spreads: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both widened. As of June 6, the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 54 yuan/ton [33][38]. - Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts: The net position of soybean futures decreased, and warehouse receipts decreased. The net position of soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased, and soybean meal warehouse receipts decreased while soybean oil warehouse receipts increased [44][50][56]. Spot Market - Prices and Basis: The spot price of domestic soybeans was flat, and the basis decreased. The spot price of soybean meal and soybean oil decreased, and the basis also decreased. The FOB premiums of imported soybeans from the US, Argentina, and Brazil changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [62][70][76][80][86]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Weather: The drought in the US soybean - growing areas has eased compared to last week but is worse than the same period last year. The temperature of US soybean - growing areas in the next 6 - 10 days will be close to normal, and rainfall will be below normal [90][96]. - Supply: In the 2025/26 season, the expected production of US soybeans decreased by 72.1 million tons compared to last month, and the inventory decreased by 14.5 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine soybean production remained unchanged from last month, and their inventories increased. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvest progress exceeds 90%. US soybean export inspections and sales increased, and Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [101][106][111][115][126]. Domestic - Inventory: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased. The soybean meal inventory increased, the soybean oil inventory increased, and the oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [130][134][138][142]. - Imports and Arrivals: In April 2025, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month. The arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase month - on - month [148][152]. - Profit: The profit of domestic soybean crushing decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybean shipments in June decreased [156]. Substitutes - Prices and Spreads: The prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal decreased. The spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][172][177]. - Trading Volume: The spot trading volume of soybean meal and the terminal trading volume of soybean oil decreased [183]. Downstream - Prices and Profits: The prices of live pigs and piglets decreased, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [188][194]. - Demand: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month. The inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased [198][203]. 4. Options Market - Considering the weak and fluctuating trend of soybean meal, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [215].
豆类市场周报-20250606
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-06 09:32