瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A shares and stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation by the US and the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents released positive signals for the relaxation of trade relations [9][14]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern [9]. - The commodity market strengthened due to the improvement in import and export expectations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the dollar index was volatile and weak, the eurozone cut interest rates, and the euro was boosted by the weakening of the dollar [9]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.91%. A - share major indexes rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the ranking of gains being IM>IC>IF>IH. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The market trading activity rebounded significantly compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Bonds - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds weakened this week. The yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp to 1.66% and 1.88% respectively. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.27%, 0.45%, and 1.09% respectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.46%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.55%. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively. After the easing of the Sino - US tariff dispute, the import and export situation improved, and the commodity market strengthened, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The allocation suggestion is to short on rallies [9]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 0.65%. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the employment market faced downward risks, and the debt problem continued to suppress. The dollar index was volatile and weak. The eurozone cut interest rates by 25bps as expected, the inflation data continued to slow down, and the fiscal expansion plan provided support. The euro was mainly boosted by the weakening of the dollar. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9] 2. Important News and Events - Domestic news includes the implementation of the "Government Data Sharing Regulations", the President's important article on accelerating the construction of an education power, the pilot work on the integration of the human resources service industry and the manufacturing industry, and the participation of the Minister of Commerce in the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting [16]. - International news includes the US raising the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, the pessimistic US economic outlook shown in the Fed's "Beige Book", the OECD lowering the US and global economic growth forecasts, and the number of new jobs created by US enterprises hitting a two - year low [18]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - US economic data: The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the April factory orders month - on - month rate was - 3.7%, the May ADP employment was 3.7 million, the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 31 were 24.7 million, and the April trade balance was - 61.6 billion US dollars [19]. - EU economic data: The eurozone May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.4, the May CPI annual rate initial value was 1.9%, the April unemployment rate was 6.2%, the April PPI month - on - month rate was - 2.2%, and the European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of June 5 was 2% [19]. - Other countries' economic data: The UK May manufacturing PMI final value was 46.4, and，the German May manufacturing PMI final value was 48.3, the French May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8 [19]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week's important economic indicators include China's May export and import annual rates in US dollars, the CPI annual rate, the UK's May unemployment rate, the US's May unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates, etc. [86]