瑞银：全球策略 -2025 年下半年值得布局的 10 大宏观主题

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on IG Financials, suggesting they are a sweet spot relative to Corporates, while also indicating a cautious stance on Energy and Basics due to tariff vulnerabilities [2][11]. Core Insights - The baseline scenario anticipates gradually slowing global growth for H2'25, with spreads expected to remain rangebound due to healthy balance sheets and low default rates [2][3]. - The European private credit market is highlighted for its robust fundamentals and significant liquidity, which is expected to suppress hard defaults [2][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector-specific dynamics, noting that IG Financials have shown resilience amid geopolitical risks, while sectors like Energy and Basics are more sensitive to tariff headlines [8][11]. Economic Data and Tariff Rulings - Recent economic data from the EU and US have surprised positively, challenging initial recessionary scenarios, with EU GDP projected to halve to 0.4% in 2025 under a downside scenario involving tariffs [3]. - The report suggests that spreads may peak in Q3'25 around 120/425bp but could tighten by year-end, supported by monetary policy and resilient fundamentals [3][4]. ECB Policy Outlook - The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25bp to 2.0% in June, with another cut anticipated in July, reflecting a prioritization of growth support amid trade tensions [4]. - The report indicates that the ECB may remain in a gradual easing mode due to legal complexities surrounding US tariffs, which could reduce immediate downside risks [4]. Spread Dynamics - In May, PMIs softened, yet manufacturing activity trended higher, supporting risk sentiment despite ongoing trade uncertainties [5]. - The report notes that spreads widened in an orderly fashion around tariff announcements, with limited panic selling observed [8]. Sector Analysis - The report identifies that IG Financials exhibited lower beta during spread widening, while IG Energy and HY Basics were the most sensitive to tariff headlines [8]. - In the Energy sector, firms with robust balance sheets are better positioned against global demand fragility, while those with higher leverage face more exposure [9]. Technicals and Market Dynamics - The report highlights a record-breaking month for IG Corps supply in May, driven by positive tariff news, which pushed spreads tighter [14][39]. - It anticipates that flows will remain orderly, targeting high-quality structures and issuers, reflecting a cautious investor appetite [14]. European Private Credit Outlook - The report notes that European private credit shows resilience with rising revenue and EBITDA, alongside improving interest coverage ratios [15]. - It suggests that ample dry powder is available to support liquidity and suppress hard defaults in the private credit space [15].