瑞银：全球策略 -2025 年下半年值得布局的 10 大宏观主题

Recent EU and to a lesser extent US economic data have surprised to the upside - our proprietary economic risk measure now less negative vs. 3m ago - challenging our initial recessionary scenario (Scenario 1 - here). While some front-loading of exports might be temporarily boosting Q2'25 EU growth, we expect momentum to fade later this year, aligning with our base case of weaker growth in Q3-Q4'25. With the US administration considering a 50% tariff on EU goods, our downside scenario implies an effective ta ...