贵金属日评-20250609

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, but the short - term sharp rise and high price - earnings ratio mean significant volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions, avoid full - position chasing, guessing tops, or blind short - selling. Traders with a bearish view can focus on the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [4][6]. - The short - term improvement in the international trade situation has enhanced the industrial demand expectation for silver, and recent investment funds have flowed into the silver futures and spot markets. However, the medium - term global economic growth outlook and silver's industrial demand remain weak, so the upward trend of silver may not last long. Investors are advised to pay attention to the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the technical indicators of silver turn weak [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: The impact of weak US employment data and the Sino - US leaders' phone call on the gold price offset each other. The European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected but hinted at a possible suspension of rate cuts. London gold has been oscillating strongly between $3330 - $3400 per ounce in the past four days. The short - term improvement in international trade has increased the industrial demand expectation for silver, and the significant increase in the gold - silver ratio since the second half of 2024 has made silver more cost - effective. Investment funds have flowed in, and the silver price has gained upward momentum after breaking through key resistance levels. However, the medium - term outlook for silver is not optimistic [4]. - Medium - term Market: In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a global financial market shock and pushed the global economic and trade system restructuring into a fast - lane. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price up, which once exceeded $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading of emotional impact and the marginal easing of the global trade situation, the medium - term upward trend remains intact. The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, but the price volatility has increased significantly [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US leaders had a phone call to discuss trade tensions and disputes over key minerals, leaving key issues for further consultation. The call was considered to have achieved positive results [18]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and hinted at a possible suspension of its one - year - long easing cycle after inflation approaches the 2% target [18]. - Trump threatened to cancel contracts with Musk's company, leading to a public feud between them [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US reached a seven - month high last week, indicating a softening labor market due to tariff - related economic resistance [19]. - Trump and German Chancellor Merz had a friendly meeting at the White House, discussing issues such as Ukraine, trade, and troop deployment [19].