建信期货铁矿石日评-20250609

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the rainy season, iron ore demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and as overseas mines enter the end - of - quarter rush stage, supply may gradually become more abundant. The upward pressure on iron ore prices remains significant. It is recommended to try to short the 2509 contract on rallies and also consider the accumulated put option strategy [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 6, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened higher with a small increase and then pulled back, and oscillated in the afternoon. It closed at 707.5 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [7] - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open - interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 6, including RB2510, HC2510, SS2507, and I2509. For example, I2509 had a closing price of 707.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 402,647 lots, an open - interest of 724,169 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.31 billion yuan [5] - The table also presents the open - interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 6. For I2509, the top 20 long positions had 454,030 lots with an increase of 2,721 lots, and the top 20 short positions had 475,522 lots with an increase of 6,126 lots, with a long - short deviation of - 0.73% [8] 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 6, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Outlook - Supply: The current iron ore arrivals have declined, with the arrivals in the four weeks of May at 9.2269 billion tons, a decrease of 325.4 million tons or 3.42% compared with the four weeks of April. However, considering the continuous increase in recent shipments, the cumulative shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil in the four weeks of May were 10.3982 billion tons, an increase of 526.3 million tons or 5.33% compared with the four weeks of April. With the approaching of the end - of - quarter rush stage for overseas mines, the iron ore supply in June is expected to be more abundant [10] - Demand: The peak of iron ore demand has emerged. The daily average pig - iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks. As of the week of May 30, the daily average pig - iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 37,300 tons from the peak of 2.4564 million tons in the week of May 9. With the arrival of the rainy season, the downstream demand for construction steel is also under pressure. Considering the recent decline in the overall production profit of steel enterprises, the iron ore demand in June is expected to decline compared with May [11] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to decline to 1.39 billion tons, mainly affected by the decline in arrivals in May. As supply gradually becomes more abundant, port inventory is expected to increase slightly in June. The available days of steel mill inventory have dropped to 19 days, and steel enterprises still mainly replenish inventory on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - "World Steel Association Statistical Data 2025" shows that China's crude - steel output in 2024 was 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.3% of the global total, with electric - arc furnace steel accounting for 10.2%. Domestic iron ore output (adjusted to the world average grade) was 298 million tons, accounting for 11.8% of the world's total iron ore output [12] - China National Coal Group Corporation pointed out in a recent institutional survey that the current coal market has strong supply and weak demand, with low prices and high inventory. Considering the expected decrease in imports this year and the possible weakening of the substitution effect of hydropower on thermal power, the demand for thermal coal is expected to increase with the arrival of the "peak - summer" season. Currently, the thermal - coal price is approaching the bottom and is expected to stabilize further. For coking coal, the decline in price this year has slowed down compared with the same period last year, with little price change in the first and second quarters. The current coking - coal price of the company is around 1,100 yuan/ton, and the profit has decreased year - on - year. The decline in national raw - coal output in April was mainly due to production restrictions in some coal mines due to continuous price drops and safety and environmental factors in some regions [12] - On June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation for a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore and PB powder, low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at major ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and port clearance volume, the tax - free pig - iron cost of sample steel mills, blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig - iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel - mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20]