大越期货螺卷早报-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, with seasonal demand recovery, low - level inventory slightly decreasing, weak purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it is recommended to adopt a volatile and bearish approach [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, as both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, exports are hindered, and domestic policies may be implemented, a volatile and bearish strategy is also suggested [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand shows seasonal recovery, inventory at a low level decreases slightly, but traders' purchasing willingness is weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3120, and the basis is 145, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 385.62 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing [2]. - Likely Factors: Low production and inventory levels are maintained, and consumption increases month - on - month [3]. - Negative Factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [3]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decline, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3200, and the basis is 108, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 264.29 million tons, increasing month - on - month but decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net position of hot - rolled coils' main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - Likely Factors: Demand remains higher than the same period, and inventory begins to decline [7]. - Negative Factors: The expectation of downstream demand is pessimistic [8].