大越期货纯碱早报-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level. The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1212 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 40 yuan, with a basis increase of 48.15% compared to the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1252 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply in Fundamental Analysis - The production profit of soda ash was at a low level in the same period in history. The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda in East China was 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda in North China was - 10.10 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.76%, and the expected operating rate would stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 70.41 tons, with 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output had declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 107.66% [24]. - In terms of downstream demand, the daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.68 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.53%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production had rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production had stabilized [27][30]. Inventory in Fundamental Analysis - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 162.70 tons, including 83.70 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Fundamental Analysis - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4].