大越期货天胶早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-09 02:53

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. Factors such as domestic economic recovery, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices are positive, while supply increase, rising market inventory, and a negative external environment are negative [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The basis is positive with the spot price at 13750 and the basis at 100. The inventory situation is mixed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory increasing. The market is bearish in terms of the 20 - day line and the main position, and short - term trading is recommended due to market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Likely Factors: Domestic economic recovery, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices [8]. - Negative Factors: Supply increase, rising market inventory, and a negative external environment [8]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot price of the 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on June 5 [10]. 3.4 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also changed little recently [16][19]. 3.5 Import - The import quantity shows a seasonal decline [21]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are declining [23][27][29]. 3.7 Basis - The basis changed to a spot premium on June 5 [31].