Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the expected port inventory of ethylene glycol is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease early next week, with the supply - demand structure remaining favorable this month. However, the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot, and the load of syngas - based ethylene glycol may increase from the middle of the month. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be adjusted within a range, facing upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. Attention should be paid to polyester sales and the restart progress of major ethylene glycol plants. The PTA market shows a neutral fundamental situation, with a positive bias in terms of basis, inventory, disk performance, and main - contract holdings [6][7]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level. It is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight, with the spot basis remaining strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure is favorable, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a positive bias in basis and disk performance, and a negative bias in inventory and main - contract holdings [8][9]. - The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%, and domestic polyester has issues such as low average operating rates in some small and medium - sized enterprises, over - capacity of low - end products, and high inventory levels of filaments and staple fibers [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - PTA Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental: On Friday, the main port transactions in mid - and late June were at 09 + 220~230, with prices around 4850 - 4940. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 225 [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4897, and the 09 - contract basis was 245, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net long positions increased [7]. - MEG Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level, with some traders participating in buying at night [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 4400, and the 09 - contract basis was 139, with the futures price at a discount [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 597,000 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net short positions increased [8] 3. Today's Focus - Influencing Factors Summary - Likely to be Bullish: The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound [10]. - Likely to be Bearish: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Domestic polyester has an average operating rate of 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises having an operating rate of less than 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [11]. - Current Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [12] 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, demand, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the total operating rate, production, new capacity, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, demand, port inventory, and inventory change of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - Price Data: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2019 to 2025 [16][19][23][26][32][39] - Inventory Analysis: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, FDY, POY), and other products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][47] - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] - Profit Data: It includes the processing fee of PTA, production profit of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][67]
PTA、MEG早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-09 02:53