建信期货集运指数日报-20250609

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates for containers from Shanghai to Europe have increased significantly in early June, with quotes rising from $1,500 - $1,900 at the end of May to $2,500 - $3,300. The implementation of rate increases by shipping companies has exceeded expectations, and considering the traditional peak season from June to August, freight rates are expected to enter an upward channel. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, while the far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly influenced by the logic of intensified supply - demand contradictions during the peak season on the US route and are more affected by sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot Market Situation: In early June, the spot quotes for large containers increased from the late - May range of $1,500 - $1,900 to $2,500 - $3,300. Maersk's mid - month quote rose from $2,100 to $2,397, and the opening price from Shanghai to London in the third week was $2,800, rising slightly to $2,838. Shipping companies have continued to raise freight rates for the second half of June, with quotes ranging from $2,937 to $4,245 and a median of $3,600. Considering the peak season from June to August, freight rates are expected to rise [8]. - Contract Analysis: The June contract will follow the delivery logic and verify the implementation of price increases. If shipping companies are determined to maintain prices and the price increases are substantial, there may still be a small upward space. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly based on the logic of intensified supply - demand contradictions during the peak season on the US route, which is difficult to verify in the short term and is more affected by sentiment. If the price in June is strong, the central price of the far - month peak - season contracts will also rise [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Container Shipping Market in May: From May 26th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market continued to improve. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on May 30th was 2,072.71 points, a 30.7% increase from the previous period. Freight rates on most routes increased. For example, the freight rate from Shanghai to European basic ports was $1,587/TEU, a 20.5% increase; the rates to the US West and East basic ports were $5,172/FEU and $6,243/FEU, with increases of 57.9% and 45.7% respectively [9][10]. - International Political News: There are issues in the Iran - US indirect talks, with the US's contradictory stance undermining the negotiation foundation. Israel has taken actions such as temporarily closing the Gaza material distribution point, and the Houthi armed forces have claimed to attack Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport. The US has vetoed the UN Security Council's humanitarian resolution draft on Gaza [10]. - China - US Relations: President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump on the evening of June 5th. The two countries' economic and trade leaders held talks in Geneva, and both sides should use the established economic and trade consultation mechanism to strive for a win - win result [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - Container Shipping Spot Prices: The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index for the European route on June 2, 2025, was 1,252.82 points, a 0.5% increase from May 26th; the index for the US West route was 1,718.11 points, a 0.1% decrease from May 26th [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market: The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on June 6, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc. [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]