大越期货菜粕早报-20250609

Report Overview - The report focuses on rapeseed meal (RSM), presenting an analysis of its market conditions, including price trends, supply and demand, and relevant news [9][11]. 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2560 and 2620. The market is currently in a short - term bullish and volatile state, influenced by factors such as low inventory levels, increased demand, and tariff policies. However, the impact of tariff policies may be limited, and the market may return to range - bound trading due to factors like the import of rapeseed and the influence of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2560 - 2620 [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with supply in the spot market being tight and demand rising. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cakes; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2520, with a basis of - 88, indicating a discount to the futures price. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 2000 tons, down 14.89% week - on - week from 2350 tons last week and 21.67% year - on - year compared to 3000 tons in the same period last year. - Market Trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions held by the main players has increased, but there is an outflow of funds [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal View and Strategy - The short - term trend of rapeseed meal is influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil cakes, leading to a rise followed by a fall. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [9]. 3.7 Other Data - Trading Volume and Price Difference: The report provides trading volume and average price data for soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 27 to June 6, as well as the price difference between them. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains volatile [13][20]. - Rapeseed Meal Price: It shows the futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal from May 27 to June 6, including the main 2509 contract, the far - month 2601 contract, and the spot price in Fujian [14]. - Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has been decreasing from May 26 to June 6 [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: It presents the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24]. - Imported Rapeseed: The arrival of imported rapeseed in June is lower than expected, and the import cost is in a strong and volatile state [25]. - Oil Mill Data: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has stopped falling and started to rise, the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed crushing volume has slightly increased [28][30]. - Aquatic Product Data: The price of aquatic fish has slightly increased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [38].