大越期货豆粕早报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Bean Meal - The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The phone call between China and the US this week and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are positive for agricultural products. In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, bean meal is also oscillating and rising, supported by rapeseed meal and technical buying, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving at ports in June and the weak spot price are suppressing the market. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for bean meal M2509 is between 2940 and 3000 [8]. 2.2. Soybeans - US soybeans are oscillating and rising, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybeans are oscillating and rising. The increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market, but the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The expected trading range for soybeans A2507 is between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Recent Important News - The short - term agreement reached in the China - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but due to the favorable recent planting weather in the US, the US soybean market has risen and then fallen. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, but the bean meal inventory remains low. In the short term, soybeans and related products have returned to an oscillating pattern affected by the outcome of the China - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory remains low, and the strong spot price supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.2. Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1. Bean Meal - Long factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Short factors: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China will rebound to a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans persists [13]. 3.2.2. Soybeans - Long factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation. - Short factors: The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - Bean meal: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 298,000 tons, a 44.03% increase from last week's 206,900 tons and a 65.19% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582,880 tons, a 3.97% increase from last week's 560,630 tons and a 20.45% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.4. Position Data - Bean meal: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].