大越期货原油早报-20250609

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The Sino-US trade negotiation is still progressing, and the market risk preference is positive. The new non-farm payrolls in the US in May were slightly better than expected, but the data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, reducing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, Trump is still pressuring the Fed. In the short term, there is a slight support from the macro level. The unexpected significant decline of 19 units in the US weekly rig data has led to the expectation of a possible decline in US production, pushing up oil prices to some extent, with the possibility of breaking through the upper resistance level. Investors should pay attention to position control. The short-term price range is 470 - 480, and long-term investors can hold long positions with a light position [3]. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2507, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors such as the upcoming Sino-US high - level talks, US employment data, and US sanctions against Iran - related entities. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. US API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected, but Cushing area inventory increased, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, overall being bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, which is neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long and increasing, which is bullish [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil prices are affected by tariff negotiation news, trade uncertainty, and data on the impact of US taxation on the global economy. The fuel market is relatively strong, and the supply - surplus situation has not been reflected in inventory data. The futures market is in a state of backwardation in the near future and will turn to contango from May 2026. The potential risks of increased US sanctions on Venezuela and Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure increase the upside risk of oil prices, while weakening oil demand and OPEC+ and non - OPEC production increases will add downward pressure on oil prices in the future. Saudi Arabia has lowered the crude oil price for Asia in July, and the market is expected to balance in Q2 and Q3 and have a larger surplus in Q4 2025. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined for six consecutive weeks [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the approaching breakdown of US - Iran negotiations and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Bearish factors include OPEC+ increasing production for three consecutive months and the continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies. The short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts, and in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil all increased, with increases of 1.73%, 1.91%, 0.69%, and 0.42% respectively. Spot prices of various types of crude oil also generally increased, with Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Victory, and Dubai crude oil increasing by 1.61%, 1.91%, 0.78%, 0.13%, and 0.50% respectively. API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending May 30, with API inventories decreasing by 3300000 barrels and EIA inventories decreasing by 4304000 barrels [7][9][10][15]. 5. Position Data - As of June 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased. The net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 2263 to 167957, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 8813 to 167763 [18][21].