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LPG早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-06-09 05:05

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure is high in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1] - It is expected that the external sales volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week [1] - As the temperature rises, the combustion demand is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Changes - From May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG decreased by 50 to 4550, East China LPG decreased by 12 to 4449, and Shandong LPG increased by 10 to 4590. The price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong decreased by 60 to 4580. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4449 [1] - The 07 contract basis of PG decreased by 21 to 351, and the 07 - 09 spread increased by 5 to 185 [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB are basically the same, CP is declining, and the oil - gas ratio is rising. The internal - external price difference is strengthening, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and the freight rate has a slight increase [1] Variety Spread and Profit Conditions - The production margin of PDH has improved but is still poor. The production profit of FEI is higher than that of PP. The profit of alkylated oil has increased, the profit change of gas - fraction etherification is small, and the profit of isomeric etherification has increased. FEI - MOPJ has declined, and the naphtha crack spread has little change [1] Fundamental Conditions - Port inventory has slightly increased, and docks are more active in reducing prices. Factory inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Shandong has decreased due to chemical demand support. The arrival volume has increased (mainly in South China), and the external sales volume has increased significantly [1]