甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of negative factor realization. With an unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral price direction is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferable [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreases and domestic linear production increases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 500. Exports are good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be relieved if exports increase or PDH device maintenance increases [6]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened. Downstream has a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is average. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2265 to 2322, and the import profit remained at 320. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 5 in the Jiangsu spot price, while other indicators had little change [1]. - Market Situation: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has begun. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price increased from 7000 to 7070. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 20 in the North China LL price [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream and coal - chemical sectors reducing inventory. Import profits are around - 400, and non - standard HD injection prices are stable [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6380 to 6350, and the East China PP price increased from 6990 to 7060. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 40 in the East China PP price [6]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Exports are good this year, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [6]. PVC - Price Data: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 (since June 3), and the calcium carbide - based East China price increased from 4720 to 4760. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 50 in the calcium carbide - based East China price [10]. - Inventory and Market Situation: The basis has strengthened, and mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in June [10].