永安期货有色早报-20250609

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall fundamentals and inventory of copper provide support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. For zinc, the idea of short - allocation remains unchanged. For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week. For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term. Industrial silicon has potential supply pressure in the future. Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation [1][4][8][12][16][19][21][23] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. In China, the export window is close to opening, and some smelters are organizing exports. Global visible copper inventory is in a downward trend, and domestic inventory is not expected to accumulate rapidly. Consumption remains resilient, and copper is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in June, with a supply - demand gap. Inventory will decline gently from June to July. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and pay attention to demand. Long - short spreads can be held if the absolute price drops [1] Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly this week. Supply will increase by about 25,000 tons in June compared with May, and processing fees are expected to rise. Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand is weak. Social inventory has increased slightly. The idea of short - allocation remains unchanged, and long - short spreads can be held [4] Nickel - Supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak overall, and LME premium has strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs remain stable. Inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and exchange warrants have decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] Lead - Lead prices oscillated at a low level this week. Supply is weak, and demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16] Tin - Tin prices oscillated upward this week due to improved commodity sentiment and border conflicts. Supply is affected by mine issues, and demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term [19] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate has increased slightly. Short - term supply and demand are both decreasing. Future supply has potential pressure. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [21] Lithium Carbonate - Prices oscillated at a low level this week. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory has increased. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is expected to decline after oscillation [23]