摩根士丹利：港交所-金融体系周期底部信心增强；评级增持

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to HK Exchanges & Clearing (0388.HK) with a new price target of HK$500, reflecting a 24% upside potential from the current price of HK$402.40 [6][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased confidence in the financial system cycle bottom, which is expected to support trading volume and market sentiment in Hong Kong [9][44]. - Strong year-to-date (YTD) performance is noted, with average daily trading value (ADV) reaching HK$240 billion as of June 6, 2025, an 82% increase from HK$132 billion in 2024 [2][9]. - The report anticipates a robust IPO recovery, with funds raised reaching HK$78 billion in the first five months of 2025, up over 700% year-on-year [15][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report raises ADV assumptions to HK$220 billion for 2025 and HK$240 billion for 2026, reflecting a more favorable market environment and increased IPO activity [4][26]. - Earnings forecasts have been adjusted upward, with EPS estimates increasing by 9.4% for 2025 and 10.6% for 2026 [27][30]. Market Dynamics - The financial system is believed to be in a properly regulated development mode, reducing market volatility and supporting capital market activity [3][10]. - The report identifies key drivers for trading volume, including a shift to an innovation-driven development model in China and easing trade tensions, which are expected to enhance market sentiment [11][14]. IPO Activity - A solid IPO pipeline is anticipated, with 138 deals in process as of May 30, 2025, and expectations for IPO volume to rise to HK$180 billion in 2025 and HK$310 billion in 2026 [15][19]. - The loosening of IPO criteria by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is expected to further stimulate market activity [15][44]. Valuation and Price Target - The new price target of HK$500 is derived from applying a P/E multiple of 37.4x to the 2026 EPS estimate of HK$13.38, reflecting a bullish outlook on market conditions [31][38]. - The report outlines different valuation scenarios, with the base case target increasing to HK$468 and the bull case target rising to HK$630 [32][33].