摩根士丹利：特斯拉-这事儿闹大了……

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc with a price target of $410, indicating a belief that the stock's total return will exceed the average total return of the industry over the next 12-18 months [5][34]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, including autonomous vehicles, robotics, energy storage, and manufacturing, present growth and margin opportunities that surpass those of the traditional electric vehicle business, which is currently under pressure [3][7]. - The report suggests that while Tesla faces well-known challenges in its current business, the future opportunities are potentially underestimated [3]. - The report maintains a price target of $410, with a bull case of $800 and a bear case of $200, reflecting a wide range of potential outcomes based on market conditions [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - As of June 5, 2025, Tesla's stock price was $284.70, with a market capitalization of approximately $1,002,429 million [5]. - The estimated EPS for fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.59, $2.90, and $4.53 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent rally in Tesla's stock price was primarily driven by hopes that Elon Musk would refocus on Tesla, despite potential political distractions that could affect demand [7]. - It highlights that Tesla's long-term value drivers, such as AI leadership and renewable power, remain strong and largely apolitical [7]. Valuation Methodology - The price target of $410 is derived from multiple components, including $75 per share for the core auto business, $160 for network services, $90 for Tesla Mobility, $67 for energy, and $17 for third-party supplier roles [10].