《能源化工》日报-20250609

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views Crude Oil - The short - term oil price may strengthen slightly due to macro - economic factors like stable US unemployment, potential Fed rate cuts, and progress in China - US trade talks, but the loose supply restricts the rebound space. Geopolitical conflicts may affect supply expectations. Suggest short - term participation in the rebound, with WTI in the range of [60, 70], Brent in [62, 72], and SC in [450, 500]. Consider long - volatility strategies in the options market [2]. Benzene Ethylene - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The benzene market has increasing supply and demand, but supply growth is greater. High imports are expected to continue. Benzene inventory de - stocking is difficult, dragging down benzene ethylene. Benzene ethylene supply increases while demand decreases, with inventory starting to accumulate. Maintain a short - selling approach, paying attention to raw material resonance and macro risks [8]. PE and PP - PE inventory accumulates at the beginning of the month, with slight de - stocking of social inventory. Supply and demand are in a state of pre - de - stocking, with limited upward and downward drivers. PP has new capacity coming online from June to July, facing seasonal demand slumps and inventory accumulation pressure. Suggest short - selling at high prices [13]. Polyester Industry - PX supply has increased, but there is a de - stocking expectation in June. It is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. PTA's short - term support is strong, and it is advisable to short at high levels. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand structure is good in June, with an expected short - term range oscillation. Short - fiber's absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and attention should be paid to factory production cuts. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be supported in June [34]. Methanol - The supply side is loose, and the demand side's MTO load increases while downstream profits decline. The price should be range - traded between 2200 - 2350, and inventory may shift from implicit to explicit accumulation [38]. Urea - The current market has high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation, putting downward pressure on the market. Only export expectations provide limited support. Pay attention to the start of agricultural top - dressing in mid - June and export port collection progress [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, and demand is supported by alumina. Consider holding 7 - 9 calendar spreads. PVC may oscillate in the short term, but in the long run, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. Maintain a short - selling approach [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent rose 0.01 to 66.48 dollars/barrel, WTI rose 0.02 to 64.60 dollars/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased slightly [2]. - Product Oil: NYM RBOB decreased 0.08 to 207.60 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD rose 0.33 to 212.86 cents/gallon. Some product oil spreads and cracking spreads changed [2]. Benzene Ethylene - Upstream: Brent crude oil (August) rose 1.1 to 66.5 dollars/barrel. Some raw material prices such as CFR China pure benzene decreased slightly [5]. - Spot and Futures: Benzene ethylene's spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and its basis and monthly spreads changed [6]. - Overseas Quotes and Import Profits: Some overseas quotes were stable, and the import profit increased [7]. - Industrial Chain: The开工率 of some products changed, and the inventory of most products increased [8]. PE and PP - Prices and Spreads: Some futures prices and spreads of PE and PP changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [13]. - Inventory and开工率: PE inventory accumulated at the beginning of the month, and the开工率 of some devices increased [13]. Polyester Industry - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: Some downstream polyester product prices and cash flows changed [34]. - PX - Related: PX supply increased, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - PTA - Related: PTA's supply - demand situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. - MEG - Related: MEG's supply - demand and inventory situation changed, and some prices and spreads changed [34]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Some methanol futures prices and spreads changed, and some spot prices were stable or slightly increased [38]. - Inventory and开工率: Methanol enterprise and port inventory increased, and the开工率 of some upstream and downstream devices changed [38]. Urea - Futures and Spreads: Some futures prices and spreads changed [41]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea production and inventory data changed [41]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures: Some spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [45]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Some overseas quotes were stable, and export profits changed [46][47]. - Supply and Demand: The开工率 of some devices and the inventory of some products changed [48][49][50].