原油成品油早报-20250609

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices showed a strong performance, with the fundamentals tightening on a sequential basis, concerns over geopolitical risks escalating, greater fluctuations in crude oil spreads, and rising absolute prices. WTI outperformed Brent and Dubai. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased, while the drawdown of US commercial inventories exceeded expectations, and the number of US oil rigs dropped significantly. On the negative side, leading data from the US job market indicated a cooling trend, the latest apparent demand for US gasoline and diesel declined sharply. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of end - product demand. This week, refining margins in Europe and the US declined on a sequential basis, while those in Asia remained high. Saudi Arabia and other countries lowered their official selling prices to Asia in July to multi - year lows, and there were market rumors that Saudi Arabia intended to push OPEC+ to continue increasing production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate market share. Recently, the valuation repair of Brent and WTI crude oil has been realized, and the focus has shifted to whether geopolitical risks (such as the US - Iran and Israel - Palestine situations) will escalate substantially. High - selling opportunities for absolute prices can be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - From May 30 to June 6, 2025, WTI increased by $1.21, Brent by $1.13, and Dubai by $0.97. Other indicators such as spreads and refined product prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, the BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.15, and the RBOB - BRT decreased by $0.54 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - As of June 3, Brent crude oil speculators increased their net long positions by 8,813 lots to 167,763 lots, reaching a two - month high [3]. - On June 6, the US Treasury imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 entities, as well as some entities in the UAE and Asia [4]. - HSBC Research stated that OPEC+ is expected to agree to two significant production increases in August and September, raising daily production by 41,000 barrels and 274,000 barrels respectively. It is also expected that the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day will be fully lifted by the end of 2025. However, there is an increased downside risk to the forecast of Brent crude oil at $65 per barrel in Q4 2025 due to weak fundamentals after the summer production increase [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a 0.63% decline), and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (a 0.2% increase) [4][5]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of gasoline increased, while that of diesel decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a sequential basis, and that of local refineries improved [5].